Citi economists project robust Vietnam economic growth in 2026

The group forecasts the country’s GDP growth to stabilise at approximately 8 per cent in 2026, even as export growth moderates following its cyclical peak. They emphasise that Vietnam is transitioning into a more balanced phase of development, where domestic consumption, infrastructure investment, and domestically oriented foreign direct investment (FDI) are increasingly complementing exports as key growth drivers.

Citi notes that Vietnam experienced significant benefits in 2025 from inbound supply-chain shifts and a surge in exports, particularly to the US. However, these conditions are expected to ease in 2026 as the supply-chain reallocation cycle reaches its peak. Citi views this slowdown as a cyclical shift, stressing that the country remains well positioned within global manufacturing and trade networks.

Importantly, the team expects the global economic slowdown in 2026 will be relatively mild, as global semiconductor demand remains resilient amid ongoing investment in AI and digital infrastructure. This trend is expected to continue to bolster Vietnam’s electronics exports, even as overall trade growth normalises.

Domestic demand is expected to be the primary stabilising force for Vietnam’s economy in 2026. Consumption growth is projected to remain strong and could accelerate further, cushioning the impact of slower export expansion.

Vietnam’s GDP per capita is projected to pass $5,000 in 2026, a reflection of rising incomes and the continuous expansion of the middle class. Citi highlights that Vietnam’s domestic consumption base already rivals Malaysia’s and Thailand’s, underscoring the increased significance of domestic demand as a structural growth driver.

Infrastructure development is also expected to remain strong, supported by continued public investment and ongoing structural reforms.

Minh Ngo, Vietnam Citi country officer and banking head, said, “Vietnam’s economic trajectory in 2026 reflects a clear shift toward a more balanced and resilient growth model. Strong domestic demand, rising incomes, and continued investment in infrastructure are enabling the economy to effectively absorb external shocks. This structural strength reinforces Vietnam’s long-term appeal to global investors.”

Citi cautions that upward pressure on interest rates might persist in 2026, driven by strong loan growth outpacing deposit growth and heightened liquidity needs within the banking system.

Citi expects the USD/VND exchange rate to see a moderate increase in 2026, broadly in line with 2025, with estimated depreciation of approximately ±3 per cent, on the back of expectations of a stronger US dollar and a potential reduction of Vietnam’s current-account surplus as domestic demand accelerates, and gold imports are liberalised.

Citi also expects Vietnam’s sovereign ratings outlook to be revised to positive from stable, reflecting strong medium-term growth prospects, continued structural reforms, and reduced exposure to global tariff risks, although a full ratings upgrade is not anticipated in 2026.

Citi boasts strength in cross-border payments and supply chain finance. Minh Ngo, newly appointed Citi country officer and banking head for Vietnam, discussed the bank’s strategic priorities in this country with VIR’s Thien Huong.

Citi Vietnam has been recognised for its commitment to responsible business practices at the 2025 American Chamber of Commerce Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) awards.

Citi has announced the appointment of Minh Ngo as its country officer and banking head for Vietnam, as well as general director of Citi's Ho Chi Minh City branch.