Citi remains upbeat about Vietnam's economic outlook

Citi held a seminar on August 13 in Ho Chi Minh City, where researchers said Vietnam's overall export growth in the first half of the year (H1) increased 15 per cent, propelled by a surge in shipments to the United States.

The country's domestic consumption has also continued to recover.

Retail sales growth has recovered, although still slightly lower in comparison with pre-COVID levels. Vehicle sales rose by more than 10 per cent in H1, while visitor arrivals exceeded pre-COVID levels by 20 per cent.

Citi Economists underlined the resilient investment growth despite the uncertainty of tariffs. Vietnam is among a few economies with a rising growth trend in capital formation across the region, with gross foreign direct investment (FDI) stable this year.

The medium term manufacturing outlook is still robust and industrial production is also supported by domestically oriented industries. Electronics export growth in recent months has been far outpacing industrial production growth.

“Despite macro uncertainty, Vietnam continues to deepen supply chains. In relative terms, Vietnam is likely to retain some tariff advantage versus other economies in Asia,” said Helmi Arman, Citi's chief economist for Vietnam and Indonesia.

“FDI may increasingly target Vietnam's domestic market as Vietnam's GDP per capita has now exceeded $4,000,” he noted.

Citi Economists assume that the VND depreciation is still expected but the pace should ease in H2 onwards. As exports to the US comprised around 30 per cent of total exports in the first half of 2025, Vietnam is still vulnerable to US trade policy.

“Citi's leadership extends beyond market solutions into comprehensive economic and financial research. Our seminar provides clients with in-depth insights into critical factors shaping Vietnam's economy.

“We strongly believe that the country's strong economic story over the past three decades is continuing despite potential global uncertainties,” said Minh Ngo, Citi Vietnam's head of markets and country treasurer.

The latest Citi Global Perspectives and Solutions (GPS) report has found that Vietnam and India could benefit the most from supply chain shifts thanks to the similarities in industrial structure.

The Asset Triple A Sustainable Finance Awards 2025 honored Citi Vietnam in the category of local Best Commercial Bank.

To support Vietnam's National Blood Donation Month this June, Citi Vietnam held events in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City on June 20.