New era beckons for Vietnam’s stock market

Since the beginning of this year, Vietnam's stock market has experienced turbulent and unpredictable swings, leaving concerns about its outlook for the last three months of 2025 and beyond. Against this backdrop, the annual Vietnam Wealth Advisor Summit (VWAS) 2025 themed 'New Era, New Springboard', held on September 25 in Hanoi, provided timely and in-depth insights into future market trends.

Speaking at VWAS 2025, Dr. Le Duc Khanh, head of research at VPS Securities, observed that Vietnam's stock market has shown several groundbreaking developments this year.

"One of the clearest indicators of the market's strength, investor interest, and positive momentum is liquidity. Recent sessions have reached $2-3 billion in trading value, just on HSX alone. This reflects the powerful inflow of capital into the market. As a result, many stock groups, particularly banking and securities, have reached historical highs," he said.

Regarding market outlook, when asked how far the VN-Index could advance this year, Khanh noted that after surpassing its 2022 peak of 1,500-1,520 points, the index is now approaching a strong resistance zone of around 1,800 points.

"This is a level that warrants special attention. Typically, markets rise in strong multi-month rallies, punctuated by corrective phases. In fact, we've just seen four consecutive months of gains, with September serving as a corrective period where the market consolidation and liquidity eased. Historically, such adjustments pave the way for a new growth cycle," he added.

After a period of heavy focus on leading blue-chip stocks, the market is showing signs of rotation towards sectors that have yet to rise significantly, but still offer attractive valuations and growth potential.

“From late September into October and the following months, the story will not only be about the overall market, but also about where capital will flow. Industries with limited prior gains and solid valuation headroom will likely become the new focal points,” forecasted Khanh.

Khanh further emphasised that Vietnam's stock market outlook remains positive through late 2025 and into 2026. Rising interest from both domestic and foreign investors, along with the ongoing shift of capital from savings to equities, will continue to strengthen a longer-term growth cycle.

Taking a more bullish stance, Do Minh Trang, director of the analysis centre at ACB Securities (ACBS), assessed that the VN-Index still has considerable room to grow, with a positive scenario in which it could reach 2,000-2,100 points, supported by improving corporate earnings and strong domestic institutional inflows.

"In the past two to three weeks, the index has slowed but not truly corrected. After rising more than 30 per cent since the start of the year, it has only declined about 3-4 per cent. Typically, a rally of this scale will be followed by a 15 per cent correction. What we're seeing now reflects cautious investor sentiment ahead of key developments such as third-quarter GDP data and the market upgrade story," Trang explained.

She further projected that under a scenario with multiple favourable factors, investors could expect stronger gains within the next six months.

Sharing the data collected and analysed by ACBS, Trang highlighted that since April, domestic institutional investors have been the dominant force driving Vietnam's market liquidity, while the share of foreign investors has remained relatively unchanged. Importantly, only a small portion of this group are proprietary desks of securities firms, with the majority being domestic funds and enterprises.

“We are witnessing a new force entering the market, with smart money coming directly from domestic corporations. This is a very positive signal, and such flows are expected to remain in the market going forward,” said Trang.

Assessing near-term drivers, Tran Vinh Quang, CEO of Thien Viet Asset Management, identified four major factors strongly supporting Vietnam's stock market.

The first three factors include the government's orientation towards private sector development, its consistent rollout of concrete measures to resolve bottlenecks rather than relying on slogans, and the growing attention from both the government and regulators.

“The last is the rare combination of fiscal and monetary policies. Typically, fiscal expansion would coincide with tighter credit, or vice versa,” he added. "But currently, both are aligned: public investment is being aggressively disbursed, while interest rates remain low and credit still has room to grow. This creates a very strong foundation for the market."

Quang assessed that in today's low-interest-rate environment, equities remain the most suitable channel for many investors thanks to their flexibility and relatively low capital requirements.

"More importantly, with fiscal policy expansion, accelerated public investment, accommodative monetary policy, and low interest rates, equities hold a clear advantage. This is a long-term wealth accumulation channel, suitable for allocating part of one's assets to build a sustainable financial foundation for the future," he added.

Looking ahead to late 2025 and into 2026, Quang believed that the overall market trend will remain positive at least through next year. However, he advised investors to focus not solely on the VN-Index level but on portfolio performance.

"I expect banking, securities, real estate, and retail to continue attracting capital inflows. But the key factor in an uptrend is flexibility. If a stock you hold does not rise, investors should be willing to rotate into others," he concluded.

Vietnam is entering a pivotal phase where sweeping reforms, surging urbanization, and new asset classes are reshaping its financial markets.

The third Vietnam Wealth Advisory Summit (VWAS) is being held this afternoon (September 25) by VIR and the Vietnam Wealth Advisors (VWA) community under the auspices of the Ministry of Finance.

The Ministry of Finance (MoF) has praised the contributions of advisory teams from securities companies and fund management firms.

The prospect of a market upgrade, improving domestic fundamentals, will provide strong momentum for the Vietnamese stock market.