Real estate investors must analyse every factor

Property interest surged in March compared to February in provinces with complementary geographical size, population, or development potential.

Notably, property searches increased by 39 per cent in Danang and 96 per cent in Quang Nam. In the north, Hung Yen recorded a 36 per cent rise, while Thai Binh saw a 75 per cent increase. Coastal tourism provinces like Quang Binh and Quang Tri also witnessed a rise of 45 per cent and 8 per cent respectively.

Areas seen as candidates for forming future “megacities” – with a projected population of 12.5 million and key infrastructure such as seaports, airports, and financial centres – are experiencing heightened real estate interest. Searches in Ho Chi Minh City rose by 13 per cent, Binh Duong by 49 per cent, and Ba Ria-Vung Tau by 42 per cent.

Referring to the merger of Hanoi and Ha Tay in 2008, from 2016 to 2025, property prices in former Ha Tay areas surged as many as 15 times, while prices in the old Hanoi increased by an average of just 2.4 times. However, many projects in Ha Tay post-merger suffered delays or were abandoned, raising concerns about the sustainability of such price surges.

When evaluating opportunities stemming from provincial mergers, investors must analyse economic, cultural, infrastructure, and governance factors thoroughly. Real estate value only rises sustainably when backed by local economic growth and an improved investment climate. Cautioned against speculative, short-term “surfing” behaviour, advising selective, data-driven investment strategies aligned with regional compatibility to mitigate risks.

Land plots lead growth, while apartments see rising prices but lower rental yields. According to a Q1 survey conducted by batdongsan.com.vn, land plots were rated the most promising segment for growth. About 44 per cent of respondents said land transactions remained “stable”, while 24 per cent reported a 10-50 per cent increase compared to on-quarter.

Interest in apartment sales rose 13 per cent in both Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City in March versus February. Listings surged 20 per cent in Hanoi and 30 per cent in Ho Chi Minh City, and average selling prices hit $2,520 per square metre in Hanoi and $2,360 per sq.m in Ho Chi Minh City.

Meanwhile, rental prices have remained stable at around $520 per month for the past three years, leading to shrinking rental yields – from over 4 per cent in Q1 2023 to just 2.8 per cent in Q1 this year.

The data also highlights clear price segmentation in Hanoi. Projects within 30-60 minutes from the city centre typically range from $1,600 to $3,200 per sq.m, with some reaching $4,000. Projects located further out generally fall below $2,000 per sq.m, reflecting the impact of distance and infrastructure connectivity.

In contrast, Ho Chi Minh City sees a narrower price gap between inner-city and suburban areas, with most projects priced $1,200-2,400 per sq.m. Only a handful approach the $4,000 mark.

In terms of new supply, Hanoi’s apartment launches are still concentrated in the high-end and luxury segments, mainly on the outskirts. Ho Chi Minh City, while also focusing development in non-central districts, offers more variety across segments.

Rising population density in central districts is exerting pressure on urban environments. In response, Hanoi is pushing infrastructure projects to improve connectivity with suburban areas, where numerous new urban developments – spanning various scales and segments – are being launched or planned.

There had been heightened optimism among investors when it comes to Vietnam’s real estate sector this year – but a spanner now may be in the works in the form of new and heavy US tariffs.

The ever-changing status of the global economy following last week’s tariff shocks continue to loom large among investors in Vietnam’s real estate market.