US tariffs cloud ASEAN+3 outlook

The ASEAN+3 economies consist of the 10 ASEAN member states, with China, Japan, and South Korea.

Reflecting heightened global uncertainties, particularly the evolving US tariff measures, the growth forecasts represent a downward revision from AMRO's April projections of 4.2 per cent in 2025 and 4.1 per cent in 2026 which did not include the impact of then newly announced US tariffs.

“Encouragingly, the ASEAN+3 region enters this period of global trade turbulence from a position of relative strength and resilience,” said AMRO chief economist Dong He. "Most regional operations have acted early to cushion the impact of the trade shock, and policy space remains available for further support if needed.”

Inflation in the region continues to moderate, despite a temporary spike in oil prices driven by Middle East tensions. The region's financial markets have also shown resilience, with regional currencies generally appreciating against the US dollar amid market concerns over US policy uncertainty.

The economic outlook for ASEAN+3 remains clouded by significant uncertainties, with escalating US tariffs posing the most salient risk. Uneven progress in tariff negotiations and the potential expansion of tariffs to additional products could further disrupt trade activities and weigh on growth for the region.

Ongoing geopolitical tensions add a layer of complexity, while a sharper-than-expected economic slowdown in the US and Europe, along with tighter global financial conditions from prolonged high US interest rates, could further dampen growth prospects.

"In a world that is increasingly being reshaped by fragmentation, deeper regional integration is both urgent and necessary," He noted. "By strengthening regional cooperation while maintaining openness to the world and standing firm on rules-based multilateralism, ASEAN+3 can build resilience against external shocks and create new growth opportunities.”

In a recent granted to Vietnam News Agency correspondent interview in Singapore, Dr. Hoe Ee Khor, Chief Economist at the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO), expressed his impressions on Vietnam's economic achievements and contributions to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) since the country joined the bloc 25 years ago.

ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) estimates Vietnam's economy to grow by 6.5 per cent in 2025, after posting a strong 7 per cent growth in 2024.

The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office released a report on April 15 highlighting the region's resilience policy capacity to withstand global trade shocks.