Vietnamese economy likely to expand by 6.5 per cent in 2024: Economist

Hanoi - The Vietnamese economy is likely to expand by 6-6.5 per cent in the base scenario, with even recovery recorded in all sectors of agriculture, industry, construction and services, Dr. Can Van Luc, a member of the National Financial-Monetary Policy Advisory Council, has predicted.

The economist held that the country's economic recovery seen in late 2023 will motivate the economic recovery and development throughout 2024.

This year, inflation will continue to be kept under control, at about 3.5-4 per cent, he said, adding that the country's exports will bounce back, reaching a growth rate of 5 per cent this year.

In terms of investment, foreign direct investment is hoped to maintain the rising trend, while public investment disbursement is predicted to reach the similar level like 2023, Dr. Luc said.

The economist asserted that private investment will be encouraged this year, with a rise of about 6 per cent.

Dr. Luc held that 2024 will be a tough year for the world economy with complicated geopolitical risks and lingering wars as well as various problems in security and energy security.

He recommended that this year, Vietnam should focus on analysing and forecasting the world situation to give suitable response measures.

The country should continue completing institutions, by adopting the Land Law (revised), the Law on Credit Institutions (revised) and a number of other important laws related to tax and the management of State capital at enterprises. Along with the laws approved in 2023, this will be an important legal foundation for the land, real estate, financial, banking and labour markets to develop in a more stable and sustainable manner in the future.

At the same time, it is necessary to issue legal frameworks for new economic and business models such as digital economy, green economy and circular economy as well as energy transition, he stressed.

Dr. Luc underscored the need to continue maintaining underway monetary policies, while cautiously and flexibly loosening the policy to achieve the growth target, and strengthening policy coordination to better control interconnected risks among banking, securities, insurance, and real estate.

Meanwhile, it is necessary to better promote traditional growth drivers such as export, investment and consumption, while drastically reforming the economy, especially the restructuring of businesses and credit institution with weak performance to ensure effective mobilisation and allocation of resources, the expert said.

Vietnam’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate is estimated at 5.05 per cent in 2023, the General Statistics Office (GSO) announced on December 29.